Honeywell Forecasts Modest Growth in its Annual Business Aviation Outlook

Honeywell announced its 21st annual Business Aviation Outlook on Sunday, Oct. 28, prior to the beginning of the National Business Aviation Association’s Annual Meeting and Convention in Orlando, Fla.

The company is forecasting nearly 10,000 new business jet deliveries in the next decade worth approximately $250 billion from 2012 to 2022. Honeywell forecasts 680 to 720 deliveries of new business jets in 2012, which marks a single-digit increase from the levels reported last year.

The 2012 survey shows a 9 percent increase in projected delivery value over last year’s forecast. The expected gains arise from pricing increases and a change in expected business jet mix, which reflects a continued trend toward larger business jet models.

“Next year’s totals are anticipated to be of similar magnitude, reflecting the protracted nature of the global economic recovery,” said Rob Wilson, president of Honeywell Business and General Aviation. “Over the medium term, a return to historical growth conditions supported by globalization, wealth creation in developing nations and new aircraft development should boost orders and support accelerated growth beginning mid-decade. Despite the economic challenges our industry has been dealing with for the past 40 months, we believe some progress is being made.”

According to Honeywell, the survey reported that 30 percent of buyers plan to replace or purchase new aircraft in the next five years either as a replacement or in addition to the respondent’s fleet, and large cabin jets account for more than 40 percent of new purchase plans. The survey pointed to continued modest growth during the next two to three years, and the company anticipates three to four percent average annual industry growth during the next decade.

Operators responding to the survey expressed concerns over the regulatory environment in every region of the globe, particularly user fees and tax laws. Despite the expressed concerns, most operators surveyed believe local economic growth will be stable or improve in the near term.

According to the company, Honeywell’s forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including, but not limited to, macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers’ development plans shared with the company and expert deliberations from aerospace industry experts. The company conducted interviews with more than 1,500 non-fractional business jet operators worldwide.

Based in Phoenix, Ariz., the company’s aerospace business globally provides integrated avionics, engines, systems and service solutions for aircraft manufacturers, airlines, business and general aviation, military, space and airport operations.

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